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Iowans diverge whether state is on right track
James Q. Lynch
Dec. 11, 2017 2:00 am
By a narrow 45 to 42 percent split, Iowans think the state is headed in the right direction.
The other 13 percent are not sure.
Like them, Iowa political scientists aren't sure what the right track/wrong track numbers - found in a poll of 500 registered likely voters in November - mean for 2018 elections.
If that divide persists, Drake University political scientist Dennis Goldford said, it would suggest that a wide swing in the direction of either Republicans or Democrats is unlikely.
Political scientist Chris Larimer at the University of Northern Iowa said an even split would appear to favor incumbents. It seems 'voters do not have an overwhelming need or desire to turn away from an incumbent,” he said, but the personal relationships Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds develops may be the deciding factor in whether she's elected to a full term.
The question of whether the state is headed in the right or wrong direction was included in recent polling to measure opinions on Iowa's 39-year-old bottle deposit bill. The poll was commissioned by bottlers and grocers and conducted by the Virginia-based Tarrance Group. The pollster is a GOP strategist that says it counts Iowa Republican Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst among its clients.
It's 'still fairly early” in the 2018 election cycle to read much into the results of the poll, according to political scientist Tim Hagle at the University of Iowa.
'The key, as always, will be how the ‘no party' voters feel about it - or maybe how it's sold to them by either party,” he said.
Campaign operatives see the impact of the right track/wrong track poll numbers more definitively.
'We're glad most Iowans agree” the state is on the right track, said Phil Valenziano, Reynolds' campaign manager. He points to a 17-year-low in unemployment, the nation's highest graduation rate and the governor's focus on creating a competitive business environment, new energy policy and improving workforce skills.
'As good as things are now, we are fighting for even better days ahead,” he said.
However, the seven Democrats and two Republicans who want Reynolds' job see the poll results a bit differently.
Jordan Sabine of Sen. Nate Boulton's campaign was struck that the wrong track numbers haven't been so high since 2010, when Democratic Gov. Chet Culver lost his bid for a second term.
'Plus, the Iowans who think our state is going in the wrong direction are the ones with very strong opinions, boosting their motivation to vote in 2018,” Sabine said.
Cory Crowley, who's running Republican Ron Corbett's primary challenge to Reynolds, also saw the intensity among those who believe the state is off track.
'Nearly twice as many (42 to 26 percent) feel strongly things are headed in the wrong direction versus strongly in the right direction,” Crowley said. Coupled with the general sentiment that 'political insiders and elites are causing, not fixing, problems” will be a hurdle for the Reynolds campaign, Crowley said.
Reading between the lines, Democratic hopeful Andy McGuire said 'it may portend that people have given up on their elected leaders and I don't blame them. It's hard not to get frustrated about people who have abused our trust so badly.”
Campaign staffers also noted the right track/wrong track numbers haven't changed much since Reynolds became governor late May, replacing Terry Branstad, who resigned to become ambassador to China.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll in July found Iowans thought the state was on the right track by a 44 to 43 percent margin. Reynolds got a 46 percent approval rating against a 24 percent disapproval rating in that poll.
That means 'most Iowans remain consistently displeased with the direction insiders in Des Moines have taken,” Crowley said.
'Despite her best efforts, Reynolds has failed at convincing more Iowans that the state is going in the right direction under her leadership,” Sabine said.
Adding to Reynolds' problems, Crowley said, is that more than 50 percent of the poll respondents identified as conservatives.
'That means even voters who traditionally support Republican principles and policies are tired of the status quo,” he said, and are looking for someone to disrupt the status quo.
l Comments: (319) 398-8375; james.lynch@thegazette.com